Economics & Development

The Government of Benin has designed a specific program called “Azoli” to provide a comprehensive set of self-employment and wage employment services to vulnerable youth (under-employed and undereducated youth aged 15-30), to ensure greater economic inclusion. The Azoli program, supported by the Bank under the Benin Youth Inclusion Project (P170425), seeks to include training in basic digital skills to help vulnerable youth fill the digital skills gap and boost their employability. As a matter of fact, the vulnerable youth - who have no or little education (with a maximum of lower secondary education) - are currently left behind, lacking the basic digital skills while there is a large body of evidence showing the positive impact of digital skills on youth employability.

The Women, Business and the Law tax and gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) indicators assess how the gender dimension is embedded in taxation and public spending— two key fiscal policy tools that impact economic growth and poverty reduction. Data collection builds on the established Women, Business and the Law methodology and expertise, focusing on the assessment of existing legal frameworks (laws and regulations) and supportive policy instruments (including budget statements, circulars, guidelines, instructions, and institutional mechanisms). The data presented are current as of December 31, 2024, and cover 81 economies for the taxation pillar and 50 economies for the GRB pillar.

Les pays à revenu intermédiaire sont dans une course contre la montre. Beaucoup d’entre eux ont réussi depuis les années 1990 à échapper aux faibles revenus et à éradiquer l’extrême pauvreté, ce qui a conduit à la perception que les trois dernières décennies ont été favorables au développement. Mais l’ambition des plus de 100 économies dont les revenus par habitant se situent entre 1 100 et 14 000 dollars US est d’atteindre le statut de hauts revenus dans la prochaine génération. Comparé à ce but, leur bilan est décourageant. Depuis les années 1970, le revenu par habitant dans le pays médian à revenu intermédiaire a stagné à moins d’un dixième du niveau américain. Avec le vieillissement de la population, le protectionnisme croissant et la pression croissante pour accélérer la transition énergétique, les économies à revenu moyen d’aujourd’hui font face à des obstacles de plus en plus redoutables. Pour devenir des économies avancées malgré les vents contraires croissants, elles devront accomplir des miracles. S’appuyant sur l’expérience du développement et les avancées en analyse économique depuis les années 1950, le Rapport sur le développement mondial 2024 identifie les voies pour que les économies en développement évitent le « piège des revenus moyens ». Cela souligne la nécessité non pas d’une, mais de deux transitions pour les personnes à revenu intermédiaire : la première de l’investissement à l’infusion et la seconde de l’infusion à l’innovation. Les gouvernements des pays à revenu intermédiaire inférieur doivent abandonner l’habitude de répéter les mêmes stratégies basées sur l’investissement et s’efforcer d’intégrer dans leurs économies des technologies modernes et des processus commerciaux réussis du monde entier. Cela nécessite de remodeler de larges pans de ces économies en fournisseurs de biens et de services compétitifs à l’échelle mondiale. Les pays à revenu intermédiaire supérieur qui ont maîtrisé l’infusion peuvent accélérer la transition vers l’innovation — non seulement en empruntant des idées aux frontières mondiales de la technologie, mais aussi en commençant à repousser les frontières. Cela nécessite une restructuration de l’entreprise, du travail et de l’utilisation de l’énergie, avec un accent encore plus grand sur la liberté économique, la mobilité sociale et la contestabilité politique. Aucune des deux transitions n’est automatique. La poignée d’économies qui ont rapidement effectué des transitions du statut de revenu moyen à un revenu élevé ont encouragé l’entreprise en disciplinant des puissants titulaires en lice, développé des talents en récompensant le mérite, et tiré parti des crises pour modifier des politiques et des institutions qui ne servent plus les objectifs qu’elles étaient autrefois conçues. Les pays à revenu intermédiaire d’aujourd’hui devront faire de même.

Os países de renda média — que atualmente abrigam 6 bilhões de pessoas — encontram-se numa corrida contra o tempo. Desde a década de 1990, muitos deles foram razoavelmente bem-sucedidos em seus esforços para sair do nível de renda baixa e erradicar a pobreza extrema, o que resultou numa percepção geral de que as três últimas décadas foram ótimas para o desenvolvimento. Contudo, suas expectativas têm sido extremamente baixas — resquícios de um período em que mais de dois terços do mundo viviam com menos de US$ 1 por dia. Atualmente, 108 países são classificados como de renda média. A ambição de muitos deles é atingir o status de renda alta nas próximas duas ou três décadas. No entanto, quando avaliados em relação a essa meta, os resultados são péssimos. Desde a década de 1990, apenas 34 economias de renda média alcançaram o status de renda alta. Juntos, esses países representam menos de 250 milhões de pessoas — a população do Paquistão. Desde 1970, a mediana da renda per capita dos países de renda média nunca ultrapassou um décimo do nível da renda dos EUA.

The Goa Blended Finance Facility for Climate Resilience represents a strategic collaboration between the Government of Goa and the World Bank. It addresses the need for climate-centered financial mechanisms at the subnational level, aiming to facilitate the mobilization of concessional finance for low carbon and climate-resilient development. The session gave a holistic overview of the facility, highlighting its potential to catalyze sustainable development and support actualization of Goa’s climate strategies. The discussions further addressed the potential of blended financing in bridging the funding gap for climate, particularly through leveraging private capital and concessional financing.

Zambia’s economy is emerging from a debt crisis and has successfully negotiated a debt restructuring with creditors and an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. This report highlights that, with reforms, significant profitable investment opportunities are available for businesses, which will contribute to better jobs and higher incomes for Zambia’s population. To keep the analysis focused and manageable, the report delves into four specific sectors: mining, solar power, agribusiness, and tourism. Implementing key actions in these sectors can attract up to 21 billion dollars in cumulative new investment between 2025 and 2030, or close to 50 percent above current trends. Up to roughly 80,000 additional formal jobs can be created directly - equivalent to more than 10 percent of formal jobs in 2022. In an upside scenario, as many as 220,000 additional jobs can also be created indirectly in the rest of the economy (with greater uncertainty in the estimates, especially for the indirect impact of mining investments on employment).

Afghanistan's economic growth in 2023-24 is a positive development but remains insufficient to improve social indicators meaningfully. High poverty, unemployment, limited resources, and weak purchasing power continue to leave millions vulnerable, while subdued aggregate demand keeps the economy in a deflationary phase, constraining growth. The outlook remains fragile due to policy uncertainty, financial isolation, and inadequate human and physical capital. Restrictions on women’s education and socio-economic participation further undermine sustainable development and long-term progress.

This report examines the implications of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for smallholder coffee farmers in Honduras and Guatemala, where coffee is a vital source of rural income and a major export to the EU market. The EUDR requires coffee sold in or exported to the European Union to be deforestation-free and legally produced, supported by importer-led due diligence and traceability systems. While coffee cultivation in both countries is unlikely to have contributed significantly to deforestation after the regulation’s cutoff date, compliance presents challenges due to fragmented supply chains, limited digital infrastructure, financial constraints, and high levels of informality. The study highlights the need for coordinated action among producers, cooperatives, traders, exporters, governments, and EU importers to improve information-sharing, geolocation data collection, traceability, and risk assessment. It identifies opportunities to leverage existing institutional capacities, digital platforms, and public-private partnerships to reduce compliance costs and strengthen market access. The findings emphasize that successful implementation of the EUDR depends on collective investment in technical support, sustainable production practices, and social protection measures that enable smallholders to remain competitive while supporting forest conservation and rural livelihoods.

Beneficial ownership transparency (BOT) is widely recognized as a key tool to combat corruption and illicit financial flows, with strengthened Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards requiring centralized ownership registers and access to such data for public procurement to prevent fraud and conflicts of interest. Malawi is at an early stage of implementing BOT reforms, with legislative frameworks and systems for collecting and sharing ownership data still under development, despite commitments under the Open Government Partnership Action Plan (2023–2025). The Government of Malawi faces immediate needs, including developing a digital disclosure system, strengthening legal frameworks for companies and trusts, and building institutional capacity to verify complex ownership structures. In parallel, BOT reforms are linked to the Fiscal Governance Program for Results, where they may serve as disbursement-linked indicators. To support these efforts, the World Bank engaged Open Ownership to provide advisory services, working with key institutions such as the Department of the Registrar General and other stakeholders. This report presents findings from capacity, systems, and legislative assessments, offering recommendations and a roadmap to advance effective BOT implementation in Malawi.

Mauritania’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed as “moderate”—unchanged from the previous DSA published in December 2023—with ‘some space’ to absorb shocks. All external and public debt indicators remain below their thresholds during the whole projection period under the baseline scenario, while all but one indicator breach under the most extreme shock scenario. External and public debt therefore continue to be assessed as sustainable, supported by a comfortable fiscal buffer maintained by the government at end-June 2024. Mauritania is assessed as having a medium debt-carrying capacity, in line with the previous DSA. This assessment is subject to downside risks. Further delays in the start of gas exploitation from GTA as well as adverse price fluctuations in commodity markets could lower fiscal revenue, increase external financing needs, and worsen the medium-term debt profile. Security concerns in the Sahel region and intensified geopolitical tensions present additional risks through their respective impacts on economic stability and food prices. Upside risks include the potential phases 2 and 3 of the GTA gas project and possibly other mining projects, and better than expected terms of trade developments. The DSA highlights the need to adopt a prudent borrowing strategy, that relies on grants and concessional financing taken up at a moderate pace consistent with absorptive capacity, to keep debt service contained

This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Togo to be at moderate risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of public debt distress - unchanged from the last DSA. Judgement was applied to increase the risk of external debt distress from low to moderate because of Togo’s high exposure to domestic currency debt and limited information about the residency of its holders. Debt is assessed as sustainable because: (i) fiscal consolidation supported by the ECF-arrangement is projected to reduce the present value (PV) of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) to below the high-risk benchmark by 2026; (ii) apart from a one-time breach in debt service indicators in 2025 relating to the repayment of a trade finance loan that is expected to be refinanced with the help of a World Bank Group (WBG) guarantee instrument, all external DSA indicators remain below their respective thresholds in the baseline and shock scenario and trend downwards over the medium term; and (iii) Togo’s access to the WAEMU market and support from regional debt institutions bolsters the country’s capacity to carry CFAF debt. The authorities should continue fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization efforts, pursue structural reforms to boost growth and exports, prioritize long-term concessional external debt to reduce dependence on the regional market, pursue appropriate refinancing to alleviate liquidity pressures, and contain contingent liabilities. This will help reduce the PV of public debt and mitigate rollover and refinancing risks.