Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania

Overview & Synopsis

This paper attempts to establish if climate acts as the determinant of destination choice in case of rural-to-rural migration. In the context of climate change where the link between climate and rural income has been well established, it is argued that migrants who move within rural areas choose destinations with more favourable climate conditions allowing for higher incomes. Employing the alternative-specific conditional logit model, this paper shows that such indirect effect of climate on migration destination choice is non-negligible, since one per cent increase in the expected income differentials between origin and destination, attributable to climate, increases the probability of choosing a given destination by at least nine percentage points. On the other hand, distance acts as a constraint for migration, in particular for the poorest individuals who might be inhibited from reaping full benefits of mobility.