Regime clusters and challenges to democratisation in the eastern neighbourhood: Azerbaijan and Belarus

Overview & Synopsis

This policy paper explores where and how authoritarian control is most persistently entrenched. Rather than analysing causal factors of entrenchment, the paper identifies the institutional arenas where democratic governance is most constrained, offering a diagnostic basis for context-aware democracy support. For that purpose, our analysis offers a regime-sensitive analysis of autocratisation in the Eastern Neighbourhood (EN) region, focusing on Azerbaijan and Belarus – the two long-term closed autocracies in the EN. Drawing on a comparative framework, we identify the historical and institutional features that reflect – rather than explain – the long-term persistence of authoritarian control. In doing so, this paper follows two basic premises: first, a regime-sensitive perspective needs to take into consideration the overall dynamic, and second, the direction of the regime development. This constitutes a critical and basic assessment for policymakers and their democracy support strategies and actions.