Post-Audit Mirage: Identifiability Limits of Offline Agent Verification

Overview & Synopsis

Offline tests can fail to reveal whether an agent update will remain safe after deployment. We operationalize this post-audit mirage using matched safe and harmful lifecycles that expose identical verifier-visible evidence while an isolated scorer records opposite deployment truth. Our theorem applies standard observational-equivalence and indistinguishability ideas to this executable audit boundary and states the resulting error-abstention tradeoff. The Post-Audit Mirage benchmark makes that boundary executable across authorization, scheduling, and shared-capacity environments. IdentifiedRangeMonitor uses fresh group-labelled harm outcomes to return deploy, hold, cannot determine, or unsupported. Experiments show that monitoring can recover the missing distinction in favorable settings but may remain undecided for rare groups, small effects, or missing observations. Verifier-agent evaluation must therefore test both calculation validity and whether the available evidence supports the deployment decision.