Quantitative landslide hazard assessment with remote sensing observations and statistical modelling

Overview & Synopsis

The analysis of landslide inventories is the basis for quantitative hazard assessment. Landslide inventory maps are prepared using conventional methods (field surveys, visual interpretation of aerial photographs) and new remote sensing techniques. One of the most promising techniques for landslide detection and mapping is related to the measurement of the ground deformation by satellite radar interferometry (InSAR).This doctoral thesis is dedicated to the preparation of a multi-date inventory, from multi-source data, including InSAR, for a quantitative assessment of landslide hazard. The methods associate the analysis of Earth Observation products and statistical modelling for the characterization of landslide hazard in a rural and mountainous region of the South French Alps. They have been developed at the slope (1:5000-1:2000) and the regional (1:25.000-1:10.000) scales. For the creation of a multi-date inventory, this study developed a combined interpretation of time series of SAR images, aerial photographs, geomorphological maps, historical reports and field surveys. At the slope-scale, a geomorphologically-guided methodology using InSAR was proposed to identify landslide displacement patterns and measure their kinematic evolution. At regional scale, spatio-temporal distribution of landslides is characterised and hazard is assessed by computing spatial and temporal probabilities of occurrence for a given intensity of the phenomena. The spatial occurrence is evaluated using a multivariate model (logistic regression). The temporal occurrence of landslide is estimated with a Poisson probability model to compute exceedance probabilities for several return periods. Different mapping units were used in the modelling, and their influence on the results is discussed. Analysis of landslide hazard is then proposed for some particular hotspots. Relationships between landslide (re)activations and triggering factors are envisaged.