India’s Long-Term Poverty Trend, 2011-2012 to 2023-2024

Overview & Synopsis

With the release of India’s official 2023–24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES), this note updates and analyzes long-term poverty trends in India from 2011–12 to 2023–24 using a consistent poverty estimation methodology aligned with recent World Bank practice. Poverty is measured against the international poverty lines of $3.00 per person per day (extreme poverty) and $4.20 per person per day (lower-middle-income country poverty line), expressed in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. The analysis documents a large and sustained decline in monetary poverty over the past decade. Moderate poverty declined from nearly 58 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2023, while extreme poverty fell from 27 percent to under 3 percent, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Progress was broad-based across rural and urban areas, with particularly large absolute gains in rural regions, leading to a narrowing of the rural–urban poverty gap. Consumption growth over the period was pro-poor, with higher growth rates observed among lower-income households than among those at the top of the distribution, contributing to substantial reductions in poverty depth and severity. While a sharp one-year decline in poverty between 2022 and 2023 is observed, the note advises caution in interpreting short-term changes, emphasizing long-term trends and acknowledging possible effects of improved survey implementation and reporting.