How synchronous is wind energy production among European countries?

Overview & Synopsis

The amount of wind energy entering the European electricity transmission system is expected to increase in next decades. Indeed, Europe is on the path towards a deep transformation of its energy system, triggered in part by Directive 2009/28/EC (also known as the Renewable Energy Directive), in which wind energy will play an important role. Europe is large enough to be impacted by multiple weather systems at any one time and as a consequence , absolute values and time patterns of wind power generation are different in each European country because of these non-homogeneous meteorological conditions. A future pan-European power transmission grid aiming to dispatch electricity production throughout the continent will thus have to face the challenge of balancing in real time differently intermittent and strongly inhomogeneous resources. In this study, based on the wind fields provided at daily resolution for the period 1961–2050 by 12 regional climate models involved in the ENSEMBLES climate modelling intercomparison project, we have evaluated absolute national and European wind power production and its expected changes following the evolution of climate in Europe. Moreover, we have suggested a methodology to investigate in a quantitative way the complementarity among wind power patterns in different countries. Results show that the evolution of climate in Europe as projected by the ENSEMBLES participants, is not expected to have major impact on absolute wind energy production. Furthermore, the complementarity of wind energy patterns in different countries can be exploited by better integration of trans-boundary power exchange in Europe. For this reason, results are also discussed in the light of the design and dimensioning of the European electricity transmission system, with a special emphasis on the cross-border inter-connections issues.