Economics & Development

Hydrometeorological events pose a serious risk for many countries in Latin America. This paper provides details on the work done for Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, including quantified, national-level flood-loss estimates as well as regional-level results. The World Bank leveraged the global model of JBA Risk Management (JBA) to develop risk profiles on a regionally consistent basis. The rationale for using a regionally consistent approach was to explore risk transfer options for Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru both as a group and on an individual basis. The risk profiles provide estimates of the expected loss from assets that could be expected under various climate scenarios for each region (department) within the four countries studied. This paper also describes how rainfall events can affect a nation’s economy via various transmission channels. Rainfall events can affect the workforce as well as firm and sectoral productivity (agriculture, for example). Certain events can also create changes to national gross domestic product, depending on the severity of flooding and the areas affected. Finally, the report details these countries current financial strategies to manage disaster risk and presents various financial solutions that they could consider

The Amazon Sustainable Landscapes (ASL) Program is an integrated program funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and led by the World Bank. Across three phases, the ASL brings together eight countries: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela with the objective to improve integrated landscape management and conservation of ecosystems in targeted areas in the Amazon region. This report focuses on the progress of projects that were active during the year 2024 (ASL1 and ASL2). Overall, the year 2024 witnessed successes from farm and field to country levels in the Amazon, but also environmental challenges. On the positive side, there were reductions in deforestation in some countries. On the negative side, the influence of climate change continues, with a second year of significant drought and an associated dramatic increase in fires throughout the region.

This report provides practical insights into the political economy challenges and opportunities for advancing carbon pricing, drawing on the experiences of select countries, including those in the World Bank’s Partnership for Market Implementation (PMI). Such countries often face different socioeconomic, political, and institutional environments than high-income economies. The review combines findings from academic literature in economics and political science, interviews with stakeholders, and an original survey of carbon pricing experts and policymakers in developing countries, to extract meaningful insights into how policymakers navigate political economy challenges to promote carbon pricing in developing countries. The report does not deal with the adoption of the broader set of climate policies that may also support mitigation. The premise of this report is that carbon pricing can be an effective and cost-effective instrument, one that has increasingly attracted government interest as a key part of the climate policy toolkit. The target audience for this report is national and subnational policymakers and other interested stakeholders seeking practical insights on real world approaches that have worked or failed when advancing carbon pricing. The report does not prescribe best practices or cover every possible circumstance. Instead, by examining current practices at each stage of carbon pricing development, it aims to inform and assist in efforts to implement carbon pricing.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has moderated since the second quarter of 2024, owing to subdued domestic demand. The government has responded to the domestic demand slowdown with incremental policy stimulus, balancing short-term growth support with longer term de-risking objectives. While monetary policy has been eased, its impact has been constrained by subdued credit demand. Despite lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates, state-financed purchase of housing inventories, and liquidity support to developers, the property sector remains weak in the face of dampened housing demand. The outlook is subject to domestic and external risks. Domestically, a more persistent downturn in the property sector could further temper investment and local government revenues. Tighter local government financing, in turn, can lead to under-execution of fiscal policies, dampening growth. China’s growth slowdown is partly driven by structural factors, such as structurally low consumption, high property developer and local government debt, and an aging population. Addressing these challenges requires structural reforms to address vulnerabilities and sustain growth. Key priorities include (i) fostering domestic demand by strengthening social safety nets, redirecting fiscal resources to social spending, and promoting market-oriented reforms to encourage private sector investment; (ii) supporting a sustainable property sector recovery by addressing shortcomings in the property financing mechanism and resolving the sector’s debt overhang; and (iii) managing local government financial risks through reform in the fiscal framework and medium-term subnational fiscal consolidation.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has moderated since the second quarter of 2024, owing to subdued domestic demand. The government has responded to the domestic demand slowdown with incremental policy stimulus, balancing short-term growth support with longer term de-risking objectives. While monetary policy has been eased, its impact has been constrained by subdued credit demand. Despite lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates, state-financed purchase of housing inventories, and liquidity support to developers, the property sector remains weak in the face of dampened housing demand. The outlook is subject to domestic and external risks. Domestically, a more persistent downturn in the property sector could further temper investment and local government revenues. Tighter local government financing, in turn, can lead to under-execution of fiscal policies, dampening growth. China’s growth slowdown is partly driven by structural factors, such as structurally low consumption, high property developer and local government debt, and an aging population. Addressing these challenges requires structural reforms to address vulnerabilities and sustain growth. Key priorities include (i) fostering domestic demand by strengthening social safety nets, redirecting fiscal resources to social spending, and promoting market-oriented reforms to encourage private sector investment; (ii) supporting a sustainable property sector recovery by addressing shortcomings in the property financing mechanism and resolving the sector’s debt overhang; and (iii) managing local government financial risks through reform in the fiscal framework and medium-term subnational fiscal consolidation.

As digital technologies increasingly shape agricultural production systems, market access, financial services, and climate resilience strategies, countries face growing pressure to build a workforce equipped with digital competencies relevant to agriculture. In South Sudan, where agriculture remains the primary livelihood for the majority of the population, digital agriculture presents an opportunity to enhance productivity, improve food security, and create employment pathways for youth. However, the adoption of digital technologies in agriculture requires more than infrastructure, it depends on institutional capacity, workforce readiness, and foundational digital skills. Despite the recognized importance of agriculture for economic recovery and human capital development, limited evidence has been available on the country’s readiness to support digital transformation in this sector. The report Developing the Skills Foundation for Digital Agriculture in South Sudan provides a landscape analysis of digital agriculture in the country. It examines the institutional, technical, and workforce conditions required to enable digital transformation in agriculture, with a particular focus on skills development. The analysis contributes directly to the objectives of the Building Skills for Human Capital Development in South Sudan (P178654) project by identifying constraints and opportunities to strengthen digital skills for youth in agriculture. This note summarizes the key findings, lessons learned, and strategic recommendations emerging from the final report.

Prudent fiscal management and sizeable net debt repayments have led to an improvement in Honduras’ debt dynamics compared to the September 2023 full DSA, resulting in an end-2023 public debt stock of 48 percent of GDP, 4 p.p. lower than projected at program approval. Risk ratings remain unchanged, with Honduras’ risk of external debt distress assessed low, while the risk of overall public debt distress is moderate. Honduras maintains a strong debt-carrying capacity. Going forward, the authorities remain committed to prudent macroeconomic policies, including by continuing to adequately balance social and investment needs with preserving fiscal and debt sustainability. Sustaining efforts to further strengthen the domestic debt market, enhance monetary and foreign exchange policy frameworks, and strengthen the financial viability of the energy sector are important safeguards to debt sustainability. The debt sustainability outlook remains vulnerable to policy slippages and risks of exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters and a deterioration of the global outlook.

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova at low risk of external debt distress and at moderate risk ooverall public debt distress, unchanged from the previous assessment.1 Moldova’s public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong.2 Overall, the public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for broadening growth drivers, sustaining reform momentum, and remaining committed to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, while reducing longer-term risks stemming from climate change through the RSF arrangement. In addition, improving governance, enhancing effectiveness of public spending—especially public investment—and strengthening management of fiscal risks, including from SOEs, are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities and reducing vulnerabilities to extreme weather events and energy shocks

Тази година субнационалната серия B-READY обхваща 40 града в шест държави членки на ЕС — България, Хърватия, Унгария, Португалия, Румъния и Словашката република — обхващайки 36 европейски региона. В България субнационалният B-READY обхваща шест града в шест региона на ниво NUTS2: Бургас (югоизточен), Плевен (северозападен), Пловдив (южен централен), Русе (североцентрален), София (югозападен) и Варна (североизточен). Основната цел на субнационалните B-READY изследвания е да идентифицират и адресират регионалните неравенства в регулаторната среда и да насърчават реформи, които насърчават растежа на частния сектор, създаването на работни места и устойчивостта. Subnational серията B-READY предоставя задълбочен, базиран на данни анализ на бизнес климата на местно ниво, предлагайки приложими прозрения за политиците.

Ce rapport présente une analyse approfondie des programmes éducatifs Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL) et Sanady classique, visant à éclairer leur impact sur les performances scolaires au Maroc. La question centrale de cette étude est de déterminer si le programme TaRL améliore les résultats scolaires des enfants qui ne bénéficient pas directement du programme. Pour l'Initiative Nationale pour le Développement Humain (INDH), cette étude vise à offrir des ecommandations stratégiques essentielles pour optimiser le ciblage des programmes éducatifs. Il s'agit de déterminer s'il est plus efficace de concentrer les efforts sur un nombre restreint d'écoles avec un plus grand nombre d'élèves bénéficiaires, si les externalités positives sont absentes ou limitées, ou, au contraire, de toucher un plus grand nombre d'écoles avec moins d'élèves bénéficiaires afin de maximiser les externalités. Cependant, plusieurs facteurs imprévus, liés à la grève des enseignants survenue l’année de la mise en place du programme, n’ont pas permis de mettre en œuvre le plan d’analyse initial. En comparant les performances des l’ensemble des élèves dans les écoles qui ont mis en œuvre les programmes TaRL (groupe A) et Sanady classique (groupe B) avec celles du groupe de contrôle (groupe C), nous avons trouvé que les coefficients observés pour les deux programmes étaient généralement faibles et non significatifs. Ces résultats doivent cependant être interprétés avec prudence. D'une part, l’absence d’un effet moyen au niveau de l’école n’indique pas que le programme n’a pas eu un effet direct sur les bénéficiaires: il est possible que cet effet existe, mais que la proportion de bénéficiaires soit trop limitée pour être détectée au niveau de l’école. D’autre part, les grèves ont pu réduire l’intensité du traitement, diminuant ainsi notre capacité à détecter un effet. En conclusion, bien que les résultats actuels ne montrent pas d'effets significatifs sur les performances scolaires des élèves, une approche prudente et continue d'évaluation et d'adaptation des programmes pourrait révéler des impacts positifs à long terme.

Climate risk management in Malawi's financial sector is a pressing issue that demands immediate attention. Globally, the urgency of addressing climate change is escalating, and many African countries are taking proactive steps to mitigate its financial implications. Kenya, Tanzania, and Morocco, among others, have already implemented supervisory guidelines for climate risk management to safeguard their financial systems and economies. The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM), recognizing the critical importance of this issue, has similarly initiated the development of climate risk supervisory guidelines for banks and are considering doing the same for the insurance sector. To inform these policy efforts, RBM, with the support of the World Bank, conducted this assessment to better understand the impacts of climate change on the insurance and banking sectors in Malawi. This report’s analysis is the first of its kind for Malawi, and one of the first climate-related financial risk analyses in the Africa region that looks at the impact of climate change on the insurance sector in addition to the banking sector. The ultimate objective of this report is to build a roadmap for RBM to better assess and manage climate-related financial risks for banks and insurers.