Economics & Development

Guinea-Bissau remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). A recent upgrading of Guinea-Bissau’s assessed debt carrying capacity results in mechanical signals of moderate risk of external debt distress. However, judgement is applied to maintain the risk of external debt distress at high because there are strong indications that non-residents hold a large share of Guinea-Bissau’s public debt denominated in local currency and standard export shocks lead to multi-year breaches, indicating limited buffers. That said, the stock of external debt has been steadily reduced through the prudent borrowing policy under the ECF supported program and the International Development Association’s (IDA) Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP). The PV of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio breaches the benchmark for a prolonged period. However, public debt is assessed as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitments to fiscal consolidation. Public debt declined from 82.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 75.1 percent in 2025, supported by larger nominal GDP growth, favorable FX movement, and smaller stock-flow discrepancy and overall deficit. Public debt as a share of GDP is projected to decline below the WAEMU criteria (70 percent of GDP) in 2028. The authorities remain committed to a prudent borrowing policy and fiscal consolidation, which are the key drivers to reduce external and public debt. Despite spending overruns through August 2025, the authorities renewed their program commitments and have complied with very tight spending limits in recent months. The authorities also implemented a measure to safeguard liquidity for debt service, which has proven effective to boost investor confidence and mitigate roll-over risks. The authorities’ policy commitments are underpinned by the ECF-supported program, extended through December 29, 2026.

غوره شوی دی پورته، د نسبی بیې ثبات او د کورنی عوایدو راټولولو ښه والی. خو، د نفوس چټک وده—چې د هغې له امله رامنځته شوې د میلیونونو افغانانو بېرته راتګ — دا معنا لری چې د هر کس عایدات کمېږی. هممهاله وخت، کمزوری پانګونه او محدود کار جوړول لا هم فرصتونه محدودوی. په داسې حال کې چې د ماکرو اقتصادی ثبات په پراخه کچه پاتې شوی دی ساتل شوی، د بهرنیو فشارونو زیاتوالی، سیمه ییزې شخړې او کمېدونکی مرستې دا دی د زیان مننې زیاتوالی، او لید لا هم نازک پاتې د

This report presents the 2026 Economic Update for Burkina Faso and examines recent economic performance, poverty trends, and the role of women’s economic participation in driving inclusive growth. Burkina Faso’s economy grew by an estimated 5.3 percent in 2025, supported by strong agricultural production, improved security conditions, a recovery in mining activities, and growth in services. Inflation declined to-0.5%, poverty rates fell significantly, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1.8 percent of GDP, and the current account recorded a surplus driven by higher gold exports and lower oil prices. However, risks remain from insecurity, climate shocks, and rising global energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Growth is projected at 4.9 percent in 2026, with inflation expected to return to positive levels. The special chapter highlights persistent gender disparities that limit women’s economic opportunities. Despite improvements in girls’ education and maternal health, women continue to face lower employment rates, greater informality, limited access to land and finance, high unpaid care burdens, and lower earnings than men. The report argues that closing gender gaps through investments in education, skills development, financial inclusion, health services, childcare, land rights, and protection from gender-based violence would enhance productivity, reduce poverty, and support more resilient and inclusive economic growth.

The Country Opinion Survey in Bulgaria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Bulgaria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Bulgaria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Bulgaria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Bulgaria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Bulgaria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in Bulgaria.

The Country Opinion Survey in West Bank and Gaza assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in West Bank and Gaza perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in West Bank and Gaza on 1) their views regarding the general environment in West Bank and Gaza; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in West Bank and Gaza; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in West Bank and Gaza; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in West Bank and Gaza.

This briefing note presents summary findings from the Crisis Preparedness Gap Analysis CPGA in the Kyrgyz Republic. The CPGA provides a shock‑agnostic assessment of the Kyrgyz Republic’s capacity to deal with crisis events across a range of core systems - whether driven by natural hazards, food insecurity, disease outbreaks, or other threats. Following a brief description of the CPGA methodology and an overview of the risk context in the Kyrgyz Republic, this note presents high-level insights from the preparedness assessment, focusing on entry points and opportunities to strengthen crisis preparedness. The CPGA can serve as an important analytical input for dialogue with the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. Further details on the CPGA findings are provided in an accompanying Technical Annex.

This report explores the ways in which Nigeria can pursue its development objectives while considering the challenges of climate change and the opportunities of low-emission technologies. Chapter 1 presents Nigeria’s development and climate context. Chapter 2 focuses on Nigeria’s climate commitments and evaluates the existing legal and institutional frameworks, policies, regulations, and capacities to ensure the country achieves resilient and low-carbon development. Chapter 3 outlines development and climate challenges for selected sectors and thematic areas, namely, agriculture, forests and land use, water, urban development, energy, and disaster risk management (DRM), and prioritizes policies and investment to address them. Chapter 4 identifies the impact of these policies and investments on long‑term economic performance, including on growth and poverty, while Chapter 5 presents options to finance them. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes with a set of policy recommendations for all key sectors to put Nigeria on a trajectory toward its own development and climate goals.

The Mekong Delta (MKD’s) region fishery sector is the major contributor to Viet Nam’s USD 10 billion seafood industry. Fisheries play an important role in the livelihoods and food security of households across the MKD. However, climate change poses a growing risk for households in the region, particularly fishery households, as the region is among the most climate-vulnerable regions globally, with rising sea levels, salinity intrusion, land subsidence, and extreme weather events threatening freshwater availability and livelihoods. This report’s objective is to examine the income and employment patterns of fishery households, their vulnerability to environmental shocks and long-term environmental change, their responses to shocks, and to assess the role of public policy in supporting their coping and adaptation strategies. The report uses both large household survey as well as qualitative survey, all collected with the purpose to develop a comprehensive understanding of the livelihoods, vulnerabilities, coping strategies, and aspirations of fishery households and workers in the MKD. It combines focus group discussions (FGDs) with fishery workers and local authorities, a large scale quantitative household survey, and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) among fishery sector workers. The report is organized as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 describes the profile of fishery workers and the practices of marine and aquaculture operations. Section 3 focuses on the income diversification strategies of fishery households and on the job trajectories of fishery workers. Section 4 delves into their coping strategies to environmental shocks and their adaptative capacities to environmental change. The insights from these three sections are used to derive the policy recommendations detailed in section 5.

This assessment is intended for both internal World Bank staff and external stakeholders. Internally, it guides World Bank teams in shaping policy and investment operations. Externally, it serves government ministries responsible for managing environmental and social risks, including the Ministry of Environment and Forestry and related agencies, as well as international finance institutions, development partners, NGOs, and academic organizations who may use the report for policy alignment, advocacy, and research.

There are about 40.2 agricultural households in Nigeria in 2022, of which 91 percent practice crop cultivation and 48 percent practice livestock farming. Productivity and average income of small-scale food producers show sharp decline in 2019 compared to 2013. To sustainably boost productivity and safeguard agricultural livelihoods in Nigeria, interventions integrate sustainable agricultural practices and a holistic landscape approach. This report analyzes the relationship between sustainable agricultural practices, off-farm vegetation, farm production and productivity, agricultural jobs, and climate resilience in Nigeria. Beyond sustainable agricultural practices and off-farm vegetation, other agricultural interventions may also be important for increasing farm productivity and climate resilience, including improved seeds, irrigation, and mechanization. These interventions are not analyzed in this report because of data limitations.