Economics & Development

In 2025, GDP growth is estimated at 5.3 percent (3.0 percent per capita), driven by broad-based sectoral expansion. Inflation fell to -0.5 percent, reducing the extreme poverty rate to 34.6 percent. Growth is projected to slow to 4.9 percent in 2026, reflecting spillovers from the conflict in the Middle East. The outlook faces downside risks from insecurity, climate, and terms-of-trade shocks.

Growth decelerated to 4.4 percent in 2025. Public investment contracted amid governance concerns. Weather shocks and weakened job creation weighed on private consumption. The fiscal deficit narrowed slightly. The Middle East crisis is projected to push growth down to 3.7 percent in 2026, resulting in slower poverty reduction. Growth rebounds to 5.6 percent by 2028 as conditions normalize. Risks are firmly tilted to the downside.

Growth is projected to moderate to 1.6 percent in 2026 amid global headwinds, before increasing to 2.2 percent over the medium term as structural reforms continue. Advancing fiscal consolidation and increasing public spending efficiency are crucial for macroeconomic and debt sustainability. A strong labor market contributed to lowering poverty by 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) in 2025, though further reforms remain necessary to reduce inequality and improve jobs quality.

Macroeconomic policies have contributed to disinflation, reduced external imbalances, higher reserves, and moderate economic growth. Growth is projected at 2.8 percent in 2026 and 3.7 percent in 2027. Continued progress on disinflation requires preserving tight monetary stance and further tightening fiscal policy. Poverty and unemployment reduction has somewhat been offset by high cost of living. Uneven welfare gains call for social protection measures for vulnerable groups.

The 2025 growth slowdown highlighted the fragility of Belarus’s economic model. Growth in 2026 is expected to moderate further with mild Russian demand and persistent supply-side bottlenecks. Medium-term prospects are further constrained by the limited impact of stimulus measures and elevated inflation. Belarus’s continued isolation from global markets and reliance on Russia undermine the foundations for durable, broad-based growth.

Tourism continues to underpin the Bahamian economy, yet its small scale, import dependence, climate threats, skills gaps, and marked inequality curb longer-term prospects. Recent gains in construction and cruise traffic are offset by hotel capacity bottlenecks, limiting growth and labor market gains. While prices stay subdued and revenues rise, growth is set to cool gradually, slowing the public debt decline.

Armenia recorded solid economic growth of 7.2 percent in 2025, driven by strong private consumption and investment. Average inflation reached 3.3 percent in 2025, slightly above the CBA’s target. Growth is expected to moderate over the medium term. While the conflict in the Middle East could weigh on growth in 2026, progress towards durable peace with neighboring countries would support stronger growth prospects in the medium term and beyond.

Albania’s economy maintained positive momentum through September 2025, supported by private consumption, tourism, and construction. GDP grew by 3.7 percent in Q3 2025, year on year. Inflation remained below target, while poverty declined amid a tighter labor market and rapid wage growth, which boosted incomes but added to price pressures. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.6 percent in the medium term, reflecting a maturing tourism sector.

The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant disruption in economic activity and a sizable loss in oil revenues, adding to fiscal and external account strains and raising food security challenges. These challenges, along with demographic pressures on the labor market, could undermine poverty reduction. Economic prospects hinge on implementation of policy reforms and are subject to significant domestic and conflict risks.

The 2025 growth slowdown highlighted the fragility of Belarus’s economic model. Growth in 2026 is expected to moderate further with mild Russian demand and persistent supply-side bottlenecks. Medium-term prospects are further constrained by the limited impact of stimulus measures and elevated inflation. Belarus’s continued isolation from global markets and reliance on Russia undermine the foundations for durable, broad-based growth.

Ukraine’s economy remains in a wartime equilibrium, maintaining macroeconomic stability through the effective use of external assistance, but experiencing slowing growth from labor shortages and an energy crisis resulting from infrastructure destruction and a sharp rise in global fuel prices. While Ukraine has secured assurances of US$136.5billion in external supportfor2026–2029, stronger reform momentum is needed to reignite growth and ensure timely disbursements.

Official data indicate that Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 6.3 percent in 2025, driven by investment, private consumption, services, construction, and agriculture. The growth outlook remains positive in 2026, reflecting the country’s better prospects for energy export performance due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, while inflation is projected to increase gradually reflecting pressures from international energy prices as well as domestic factors.

This statement was delivered by Cindy McCain, Executive Director of the World Food Program (WFP), at the 113th Meeting of the Development Committee on April 16, 2026, in Washington, DC. McCain opens with an urgent warning that the world stands on the brink of an unprecedented hunger emergency. Even before the current crisis, 318 million people were already experiencing severe hunger, with 1.4 million facing famine-like conditions. The statement identifies several compounding drivers of the crisis: historic shocks to global energy markets, a sharp decline in fuel and fertilizer exports threatening agricultural systems, and rapidly rising food prices exacerbated by trade disruptions that have added 20 percent to WFP's shipping costs and caused significant logistical delays. WFP's own analysis projects that, without urgent intervention, an additional 45 million people could fall into severe hunger by June 2026. Severe funding shortfalls have already forced the WFP to suspend support to millions of vulnerable families. Against this backdrop, McCain calls on the international community, and specifically on the World Bank and IMF, to act swiftly and collectively to avert what she terms a potential global hunger catastrophe, warning of its far-reaching consequences for community stability, economic development, and generational progress. The statement outlines two strategic priorities for the global response. The first is innovation and co-financing, including the scaling of co-financing mechanisms across institutions, leveraging system-wide grants to break institutional silos, and expanding fiscal space in developing countries through instruments such as debt-for-food-security swaps. The second is programmatic alignment, with an emphasis on integrating humanitarian and development programs to build community self-reliance, including linking school meal programs to smallholder farmer supply chains, to be advanced through collaboration between WFP, the World Bank, and AgriConnect. McCain concludes with a call to collective action, urging Development Committee members to stand together and respond decisively to a crisis that is already unfolding.

This statement, delivered by Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy, on behalf of the constituency of Albania, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, San Marino, and Timor‑Leste, to the 113th Meeting of the Development Committee on April 16, 2026, addresses the mounting risks to global growth and development arising from ongoing conflicts, geopolitical tensions, elevated energy and food prices, and tightening financial conditions. It underscores the heightened vulnerability of developing countries facing high debt burdens and limited fiscal space, and highlights the critical role of the World Bank Group (WBG) in preventing crises, supporting stabilization, and enabling transitions out of fragility, including through the forthcoming refreshed Fragility, Conflict and Violence Strategy. The statement strongly endorses the WBG’s reform agenda, calling for a sharper focus on development outcomes, integrated sector strategies, a strengthened knowledge function, deeper partnerships, enhanced private capital mobilization, and robust risk management. It welcomes the emphasis on creating a business‑enabling environment as a core pillar of the Jobs Strategy, stressing the importance of clear and predictable rules, sound macroeconomic management, effective judicial systems, modern payment infrastructure, and well‑designed labor market policies to drive productivity, investment, and job creation. The statement highlights the complementary roles of IFC and MIGA in de‑risking investment and developing private markets, supports scaled‑up infrastructure, skills development, climate action, pandemic preparedness, and Ukraine’s reconstruction, and reaffirms commitment to preserving the World Bank Group’s financial strength, cooperative nature, and fair shareholding framework under the Lima Principles.