Economics & Development

Congo’s growth is recovering slowly, but poverty remains persistently high. The country is in debt distress and continues to face significant liquidity pressures. Over the medium term, the conflict in the Middle East is expected to increase growth volatility, making business-climate reforms essential to establishing non-oil sectors as genuine engines of economic expansion.

Libya faces persistent political fragmentation and weak fiscal discipline, with the lack of a unified budget undermining stability and depleting reserves. Nevertheless, economic performance in 2025 was strong, underpinned by higher oil production, buoyant consumption, and a balanced fiscal position aided by exchange rate devaluation. The outlook hinges on political stability and oil performance, with moderate growth, and improving fiscal and external balances.

Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow moderately as macro-economic conditions stabilize. Although poverty remains elevated, it is projected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices should support fiscal and external positions, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. Sustaining reforms and addressing structural bottlenecks will be key to boosting growth and improving livelihoods.

Economic growth reached 6.5 percent in 2025 and is projected to moderate to 4.6 percent in 2026, reflecting the stabilization of oil output and softer domestic demand. Inflation is expected to slightly ease but remain above the target, and the poverty rate is projected to decline to 9.2 percent in 2026. Downside risks to the outlook include volatile global oil prices, potential disruptions to exports, and more persistent inflation.

On January 1, 2026, Bulgaria adopted the euro after meeting all criteria for eurozone membership in early 2025. Thanks to strong domestic consumption and investment, the economy has remained resilient despite a challenging external environment. However, the global energy price shock due to the conflict in the Middle East will push inflation up and stunt economic growth in 2026. The fiscal position warrants close monitoring amid ongoing political uncertainty.

The economy expanded 3.4 percent in 2025, with growth expected at 2.7 percent in 2026. Job creation is expected to bring poverty down to 33.4 percent. Yet subdued productivity growth and weak public service delivery remain binding constraints on growth, jobs, and poverty reduction. Fiscal slippages, climate shocks, and lower commodity prices represent key downside risks.

Growth recovered to 4.4 percent in 2025, driven mainly by services, and is projected around 4 percent over 2026–2028. Fiscal consolidation strengthened in 2025, via improved revenue collection and targeted spending cuts, meeting fiscal targets. Poverty is estimated to have decreased between 2024–2025. Sustained tax reforms and efficient, equitable public spending are essential for growth and faster poverty reduction.

Hurricane Melissa significantly disrupted Jamaica’s economy, reversing its progress in growth, employment, and poverty reduction. Strong pre-crisis macroeconomic management, characterized by disciplined fiscal policy, credible monetary frameworks, and multi-layered disaster risk financing, helped cushion the immediate impact. Reconstruction and a gradual recovery in tourism and agriculture will support an economic rebound, but a high level of uncertainty remains.

Stronger cashew production, solid private demand, and easing inflation supported 5.5 percent growth in 2025 and reduced poverty to 39.8 percent. The fiscal deficit narrowed less than planned due to weak tax mobilization. Growth is projected to soften in 2026, with headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, political instability, elevated food and oil prices, and lower international cashew prices.

Economic activity remained resilient in H2-2025, supported by manufacturing and construction. Inflation remained low and stable, supported by prudent monetary policy and exchange rate stability. Following high pre-election spending and mounting interest costs, fiscal pressures are intensifying. Strengthening fiscal sustainability and accelerating economic transformation is critical to creating more and better jobs and reducing poverty.