Economics & Development

Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow moderately as macro-economic conditions stabilize. Although poverty remains elevated, it is projected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices should support fiscal and external positions, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. Sustaining reforms and addressing structural bottlenecks will be key to boosting growth and improving livelihoods.

In 2025, GDP growth declined to 4.1 percent (1.1 percent per capita), as the fuel blockade imposed by terrorists constrained activity. Inflation accelerated to 4 percent. Growth is projected to rebound to 5.0 percent in 2026, supported by mining but weakened by spillovers from the Middle East conflict. Poverty is projected to decline marginally, supported by strong cereal and cotton harvests. Risks include insecurity, climate shocks, and spillovers from conflicts.

Growth and employment remain subdued, hampered by energy sector challenges, while inflation is still elevated. Accelerating energy reforms is critical for higher inclusive growth, although short-term adjustments may weigh on households’ living conditions. Stronger domestic revenue mobilization is needed to reduce grant dependence. Poverty is expected to decline gradually. Higher global oil prices pose risks for fiscal and external balances.

GDP growth moderated to 5.9 percent in 2025, reflecting fiscal consolidation efforts and softening global demand. Growth is projected to narrow further to 5.0 percent in 2026, including spillovers from the Middle East, before recovering to 6.0 percent in 2027–28, supported by ongoing reforms. Extreme poverty is projected to decline to 22.2 percent by 2028. Escalating geopolitical tensions, regional security challenges, and climate shocks constitute key risks.

Zambia’s economy is resilient despite shocks—thanks to ongoing reforms supporting macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and fiscal discipline. Real GDP growth is projected to average 4.7 percent in 2026–2028, reflecting expected gains from foreign direct investment in mining, along with reforms to boost private-sector competitiveness in electricity, agriculture, transport, communications, and financial services. However, high poverty, inequality, and low job creation persist.

Real GDP grew by 4.0 percent in 2025, driven by agriculture, services, and public spending. Inflation nearly doubled amid fiscal monetization, supply constraints, and fuel shortages. The parallel exchange rate premium narrowed by about one-third, thanks to increased mining export proceeds and favorable seasonal import dynamics. The poverty rate remains high at 74 percent due to inflation and limited job creation.

Growth weakened in 2025, hampered by oil-sector constraints. Inflation eased and the exchange rate remained stable, allowing monetary policy easing. Job creation remained limited. External and fiscal balances weakened. Medium-term growth is expected to rely on non-oil sectors, but poverty reduction is likely to be limited. In the short term, Angola would benefit from higher global oil prices, but oil dependence and slow reform implementation remain a risk.

Growth is projected to decelerate to 2.3 percent in FY26 from 4.6 percent in FY25, driven by service sector disruptions linked to the September 2025 unrest, the impact of the current conflict in the Middle East, and slower agricultural growth. Poverty reduction is expected to slow down due to weaker remittances, with many households remaining vulnerable. Medium-term recovery depends on the pace of reforms and reconstruction.

Growth is expected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2026 as higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict curb external and domestic demand. Structural imbalances limit the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks, slowing welfare gains. Poverty at the $4.20 line (2021 PPP) is projected to continue declining but a slower pace from 22.5 in 2024 to 20.4 percent in 2025 and 19.1 percent in 2026.

Libya faces persistent political fragmentation and weak fiscal discipline, with the lack of a unified budget undermining stability and depleting reserves. Nevertheless, economic performance in 2025 was strong, underpinned by higher oil production, buoyant consumption, and a balanced fiscal position aided by exchange rate devaluation. The outlook hinges on political stability and oil performance, with moderate growth, and improving fiscal and external balances.

Growth picked up to 3.6 percent in 2025 largely driven by mining offsetting the structural decline in logging. Global economic headwinds are expected to dampen growth in 2026. Without mining governance and tax reforms, rising infrastructure spending will push public debt above the government's 35 percent of GDP threshold. Remittances offer a poverty-reduction channel, but inflationary pressures risk eroding real gains. Risks are firmly tilted to the downside.

Evaluar de qué manera las intervenciones contribuyen al cambio es especialmente difícil en entornos complejos. Los resultados suelen manifestarse a lo largo del tiempo, involucran a múltiples actores y están determinados por factores que escapan al control de una sola intervención. Esto dificulta explicar qué diferencia produjo realmente una intervención. El análisis de contribución (AC) ofrece una forma de abordar estos desafíos. Ayuda a generar explicaciones creíbles sobre cómo y por qué una intervención contribuyó a los cambios observados, junto con otras influencias. A medida que el AC se ha aplicado en nuevos contextos, su práctica también se ha diversificado. Esto ha generado incertidumbre sobre lo que implica el AC, los tipos de afirmaciones de contribución que respalda y la manera de evaluar su calidad. Esta guía sirve como referencia para aplicar el AC con altos estándares de calidad. Dirigida a evaluadores experimentados y a quienes encargan evaluaciones, la guía establece seis pasos básicos que abarcan la construcción y la puesta a prueba de la teoría.

Évaluer la manière dont les interventions contribuent au changement est particulièrement difficile dans des situations complexes. Les résultats apparaissent souvent au fil du temps, impliquent de multiples acteurs et sont façonnés par différents facteurs, au-delà de l’intervention. Expliquer l’impact d’une intervention est donc difficile. L’analyse de contribution (AC) offre un moyen de relever ces défis. Elle permet d’expliquer de manière crédible comment et pourquoi une intervention, combinée à d’autre facteurs d’influence, a contribué aux changements observés. L’application de l’AC s’étant étendue à de nouveaux contextes, sa pratique s’est également diversifiée. Cela a conduit à de nouvelles incertitudes sur la pratique de l’AC, le type d’hypothèse de contribution qu’elle permet de tester, et la manière dont sa qualité devrait être évaluée. Cette note d’orientations pratiques sert de référence commune pour une mise en œuvre d’une AC de haute qualité. Destinée aux évaluateurs expérimentés et aux commanditaires d’évaluation, elle énonce six étapes fondamentales couvrant l’élaboration et la mise à l’épreuve d’une théorie du changement (Figure 1).

Ecuador’s structural challenges include low growth, low quality employment, and fiscal accounts heavily dependent on oil revenues. Near-term priorities center on preserving fiscal sustainability, addressing power shortages, and improving security. Growth rebounded in 2025, estimated at 3.7 percent, with a modest 2026–2028 growth outlook of around 2.5 percent, supported by private spending as fiscal risks diminish, with poverty expected to decline gradually.

The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant disruption in economic activity and a sizable loss in oil revenues, adding to fiscal and external account strains and raising food security challenges. These challenges, along with demographic pressures on the labor market, could undermine poverty reduction. Economic prospects hinge on implementation of policy reforms and are subject to significant domestic and conflict risks.