Economics & Development

Mongolia’s economy grew at 6.9 percent in 2025, driven by a surge in copper production and an agricultural rebound. Weaker coal prices, however, limited fiscal gains. Inflation remained above the central bank’s target, and poverty declined more slowly as higher prices weighed on real incomes. The authorities tightened monetary and fiscal policy. Growth is expected to remain robust in 2026, although external uncertainty and fiscal pressures pose risks.

This statement, delivered by Mohammed A. AlJadaan, Minister of Finance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to the 113th Meeting of the Development Committee on April 16, 2026, addresses the far‑reaching global economic consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, highlighting its transformation from a regional shock into a systemic challenge affecting inflation, growth, employment, food security, and development outcomes worldwide. Rising energy and fertilizer prices, disrupted supply chains, and heightened uncertainty have intensified risks for both advanced and developing economies, with particularly severe humanitarian implications, as continued escalation could push millions into acute hunger. The statement underscores the central role of the MENAAP region in global energy markets and trade routes, making regional stability a global economic imperative. It commends Saudi Arabia’s efforts to support trade continuity and energy resilience, while emphasizing that the scale of the crisis requires swift, coordinated multilateral action. Welcoming the World Bank Group’s readiness to respond, the statement calls for comprehensive impact assessments, dedicated resources, and stronger counter‑cyclical support. It strongly supports the World Bank’s Jobs Agenda, emphasizing the need to create an enabling environment for private sector–led job creation through regulatory certainty, digitalization, integration of agriculture and agribusiness value chains, targeted responses to informality, and coordinated digital transformation. The statement also notes the conclusion of the 2025 Shareholding Review and stresses the importance of ensuring that developing and low‑income countries are fully supported in subscribing to their allocated shares, reinforcing inclusiveness and effectiveness within the multilateral system.

This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of Sub-Saharan Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product, and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.

Growth is projected to remain weak, averaging about 1.5 percent over 2026–28, amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, higher and more volatile oil prices, and declining aid. These headwinds are expected to be partly offset by the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, higher water royalties, and strong Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues. Poverty is projected to remain high at about 59 percent of the population, based on the international poverty line.

The economy has been severely affected by conflict in the Middle East, with large spillovers to hydrocarbons, tourism, aviation, trade, and logistics. Prior to the conflict, growth was strong, supported by robust non-hydrocarbon activity and improving oil production. Strong fiscal and external buffers, low inflation, and ongoing reforms underpin macroeconomic stability, while diversification, digital investment, and energy transition initiatives will support resilience.

Growth weakened in 2025, hampered by oil-sector constraints. Inflation eased and the exchange rate remained stable, allowing monetary policy easing. Job creation remained limited. External and fiscal balances weakened. Medium-term growth is expected to rely on non-oil sectors, but poverty reduction is likely to be limited. In the short term, Angola would benefit from higher global oil prices, but oil dependence and slow reform implementation remain a risk.

Growth accelerated to 8.1 percent in FY24/25, driven by new hydropower projects and tourism recovery, but youth unemployment remained high at 20.6 percent. The fiscal deficit widened to 2.6 percent of GDP, and the current account deficit (CAD) remained elevated. Growth is projected at 7.1 percent in FY25/26, with poverty declining, with risks stemming from higher fuel prices and fiscal pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

Uzbekistan’s economy grew 7.7 percent in 2025, driven by export recovery and private consumption. Growth was pro poor, with national poverty falling from 8.9 percent in 2024 to 5.8 percent in 2025. GDP growth is projected at 6.4 percent in 2026, broadly in line with the economy’s estimated potential growth. The outlook remains positive, assuming sustained strong reform momentum, which will boost private sector growth and job creation.

In 2026, growth is projected to decelerate at 3.1 percent, supported by EU funded investments, despite the expected commodity-price shock induced inflation. Tight labor markets and fiscal challenges remain a concern; the latter limiting potential mitigation measures on energy prices. Downside risks arise from global uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East; the region has become Poland’s primary supplier of crude oil since the onset of the war in Ukraine.