Nigeria - Completion and Learning Review Validation of the Country Partnership Framework for the Period FY21-25

Overview & Synopsis

This validation reviews the World Bank Group’s Completion and Learning Review for Nigeria’s FY21–25 Country Partnership Framework, including adjustments made through the FY24 Performance and Learning Review, and rates the development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory and World Bank Group performance as Good. The program was aligned with the Nigerian Development Plan 2021–25 and the 2020 Systematic Country Diagnostic, organized around four focus areas. Under Focus Area 1, Strengthening the Foundations of the Public Sector, substantial gains were recorded in fiscal management and transparency: the ratio of non-oil revenues to GDP rose to 4.7 percent, most Central Bank Ways and Means advances were recognized as public debt, and all 36 states met key publication standards for budgets and audited statements, although coverage of debt management was narrower than fiscal reforms. Under Focus Area 2, Investing in Human Capital and Harnessing the Demographic Dividend, education and social outcomes improved with 10.5 million students benefiting from intensive literacy programs, a fourfold increase in girls’ secondary enrollment in participating states, and sanitation targets met, while some health utilization and water supply indicators lagged or were uneven in conflict-affected regions; adolescent girls’ school attendance improved nationally and in the Northeast and Northwest, adolescent fertility declined nationally, and women’s economic participation increased though World Bank Group–attributed support fell short of its sub-target. Under Focus Area 3, Promoting Jobs and Economic Transformation and Diversification, progress was mixed: state land administration and rural road institutions advanced and digital transactions grew, yet measurement of job creation and competitive clusters was limited; electricity access expanded more slowly than planned despite a sharp rise in distributed volumes and renewables generation, and tariff shortfall financing increased substantially; digital identification reached about half the population and digital skills training progressed, but fiber deployment did not advance. Under Focus Area 4, Enhancing Resilience, social assistance systems scaled up with broader registry coverage and increased cash transfers supported by digitized delivery systems; climate resilience exceeded targets with extensive land restoration, expanded irrigation, and millions benefiting from climate-resilient livelihoods; efforts to reduce drivers of conflict delivered gains in basic services and natural resource management platforms, though many results are expected beyond the CPF period. Program design was responsive and increasingly results-based, with greater use of Program-for-Results and Programmatic Advisory Services and Analytics and a Development Policy Financing when conditions allowed; knowledge work strengthened reform design and targeting, and World Bank Group collaboration was evident in financial and power sectors. Portfolio quality improved but remained riskier than the regional average, and fiduciary and safeguards challenges persisted alongside eight Integrity Vice Presidency investigations. Key lessons emphasize integrating fiscal sustainability into infrastructure objectives, notably in electricity where tariff shortfalls undermined access gains, and articulating a clearer, indicator-driven strategy for job-rich growth and competitive clusters.