Does the Voynich Manuscript Mean Anything? Calibrated Tests Find Little Trace of Language

Overview & Synopsis

The Voynich manuscript is a fifteenth-century book in a script that no one can read. One account holds that its text means nothing and that a scribe made it by copying his own words and changing them a little. The other holds that a real language lies hidden behind a cipher. We write each account as a program that fills the pages of the manuscript, fit every program with the same budget, and check it on statistics the fit never saw. The copying process of Timm and Schinner predicts these statistics far better than any cipher with one key. But ciphers that switch keys between the manuscript's two dialects, or that encode only the word classes of a real text, predict them equally well. Word statistics alone cannot decide. We look for a trace of language that needs no decipherment. In 28 texts in 16 languages the same word pairs keep sharing a line. The manuscript shows this pattern at half the strength of the weakest of these texts. A word code keeps the pattern above the manuscript unless its plaintext has a weak pattern or many words are miscopied. Solvers that decipher control texts find no readable text in the manuscript under a letter cipher, a word code or 28 codes with one letter, letter pair or syllable per word. Word codes of abbreviated Latin, the plaintext their fits prefer, show which word follows which more clearly than the manuscript unless two words in five are miscopied. One cipher remains possible, a nomenclator with a second key whose scribe miscopies more than half of the words, and our solvers cannot exclude it in 9 of 16 languages. Most of the structure a solver finds comes from how the end of one word shapes the start of the next, which reflects how tightly glyphs are bound to each other. Planted messages are found reliably only when they are long, each letter always becomes the same word and these words are adjacent, so other messages could hide.