Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Senegal’s PNBSF Social Safety Net Program : A LEWIE Approach

Overview & Synopsis

Social safety net programs are critical tools for addressing poverty and social exclusion in developing economies. Their appeal lies not only in their direct support to vulnerable households but also in their potential to stimulate broader economic impacts through local markets. Despite their growing adoption, questions remain about the full extent of their influence on local economies. The National Family Security Grants Program (Programme National de Bourses de Sécurité Familiale; PNBSF) program in Senegal, initiated in 2013, provides a unique opportunity to explore these dynamics. Targeting the poorest households, the program aims to reduce poverty and social exclusion through quarterly monetary transfers. Between 2017 and 2023, the program covered about 300,000 poor households, at which point coverage was expanded to reach 350,000 households, representing about 19 percent of Senegal’s population and half of the poor. This study evaluates the direct and indirect impacts of these transfers using a Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. By examining how monetary transfers generate spillovers and shape local economic structures, this report contributes to broader discussions on social safety net effectiveness, equity, and efficiency in development policy. It draws on detailed survey data and robust econometric and programming methods, with the aim of providing actionable insights for policymakers.