Crisis Response Window (CRW) Early Response Financing (ERF) Eligibility Note for Afghanistan’s Acute Food Security Crisis

Overview & Synopsis

This eligibility note assesses Afghanistan’s worsening acute food security crisis, documents the drivers and scale of need, and outlines an operational response anchored in trigger-based activation of the Crisis Response Window Early Response Financing (CRW ERF). Food security deteriorated again from mid-2025 due to recurrent drought, increasingly erratic weather, declining external financing, weak economic performance, and large-scale forced returns, with pronounced impacts in drought-affected provinces and rising fertilizer costs reducing affordability and likely yields. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS NET), in March 2026 an estimated 63 percent of the population, or about 23 million people, were projected to reside in areas classified as Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or worse, a 28.7 percent increase from the previous period, thus meeting both CRW ERF triggers. The 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) indicates substantial needs for food security and agriculture support, while humanitarian resources have forced scaled-down rations. The World Bank Group (WBG) portfolio, notably the Emergency Food Security Project implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has delivered nationwide support and established tested delivery systems, which the forthcoming Afghanistan Rural Livelihoods Program will leverage to respond rapidly and at scale in high-severity districts. The technical assessment concludes that deteriorating conditions are driven largely by access constraints superimposed on availability shocks, and that an integrated approach is required to combine immediate assistance with medium- to long-term investments that strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, irrigation, inputs, livestock systems, and livelihood opportunities through labor-intensive works and skills development, including a focus on women and youth. Policy changes and operational adjustments include trigger-based activation of the CRW ERF; preparation by FAO of a National Food Security Preparedness Plan within twelve months of project effectiveness in collaboration with partners; targeted geographic and beneficiary prioritization using FEWS NET and IPC analyses; strengthened coordination through the Food Security and Agriculture Cluster co-led by FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) and alignment with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and other partners; reliance on third-party delivery and independent verification to mitigate fiduciary and conflict risks; and options to fast-track program readiness while improving specificity of interventions, coverage in both rural and peri-urban areas, and safeguards to reduce diversion and inequitable targeting.