Uganda – Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

Overview & Synopsis

Uganda’s public debt continues to be assessed as sustainable. In line with the previous DSA, prepared in December 2025, Uganda’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed as moderate, with an application of judgement. All, except one, external PPG debt and total public debt burden trajectories remain below their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks over the medium term under the baseline scenario. As the two-year breach in the external debt service-to-revenue indicator is minor and short-lived, judgment is applied to arrive at the moderate risk assessment. Stress tests highlight breaches of external debt burden thresholds and the public debt benchmark. Continued high dependence on domestic financing is also of concern. Given that a median shock could lead to a breach for the external and total debt service indicators, Uganda has limited space to absorb shocks. Key risks include slower growth, environmental shocks, tight global financial conditions, delayed reform implementation, delays in oil exports, an adverse impact on trade from escalating global trade measures and prolonged uncertainty, and donor financing cuts.