Locked In: Multi-Objective RL for the AI Data Center Build-Out

Overview & Synopsis

AI data center build-out is a multi-trillion-dollar, multi-decade infrastructure program. Yet siting, power procurement, and cooling decisions are still made with static, single-point scoring tools. These tools are evaluated once, on day-zero numbers. This is a poor fit. A site's water, power, and carbon profile drifts substantially over the 10 to 20 year asset life. The governing decisions are also irreversible, and they bind capital and physical plant for years. We formalize long-horizon build-out as a tiered multi-objective Markov decision process. Strategic commitments are gated to discrete windows, incur switching costs, and energize only after source-dependent lead times. Operational dispatch is restricted to capacity that physically exists. We solve the problem with a preference-conditioned multi-objective agent that has a semi-Markov manager and worker hierarchy. The agent recovers a family of policies that a planner can steer across cost, carbon, water, and reliability at inference time. We validate long-horizon dynamics with a lightweight counterfactual rollout model. Across three commitment regimes (irreversible, reversible, and commit-once) on real site data, preference conditioning yields a confirmed, steerable trade-off on both objective pairs in every regime. Imposing lock-in produces a more evenly covered frontier and a far more consistent rate of anticipatory retrofit ahead of a binding water-stress constraint than a freely reversible formulation. Finally, a compact counterfactual dynamics model tracks slow-moving state well. It is measurably outperformed by simple persistence on the water-stress axis. We report this limitation rather than obscure it. We release the environment, agents, baselines, and evaluation harness. All of them are grounded in real interconnection-queue, water-stress, and grid-emissions data.