Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor

Overview & Synopsis

Thailand’s economy gained momentum in mid-2026, supported by stronger private consumption from the co-payment stimulus, robust goods exports and rising private investment linked to the global AI and data centre cycle. Although Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.9%, it remained above expectations despite the drag from the Middle East conflict. Tailwinds prompted authorities to revise up the 2026 GDP growth forecast, although the recovery remained uneven, with manufacturing activity lagging. Headline inflation continued to ease as energy prices moderated, while higher core inflation points to broadening but still contained cost pass-through. Fiscal policy remained supportive after the Constitutional Court upheld the emergency borrowing decree, preserving space for targeted relief and energy-transition spending. Downside risks to exports persist from new U.S. tariffs, but broad exemptions for electronics and related products should limit the near-term impact on Thailand’s key export engines.