Uganda - Country Climate and Development Report : Natural Capital Background Note

Overview & Synopsis

The Uganda Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) uses a scenario approach to assess options for responding to climate challenges while achieving long-term growth aspirations. It models the impact of six climate change scenarios on two economy futures with and without additional climate action relative to 2023. In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, growth and its drivers remain close to historical averages (6.5 percent), and there is little institutional or development progress. In the aspirational (ASP) scenario, reforms boost higher and more private sector-led growth (8 percent in the long term) with increased growth in agribusiness, manufacturing, professional services, and exports. Both economy futures include the same assumptions on new oil and gas production starting in the next few years. The climate actions considered are aligned with, or additional to, Uganda’s nationally determined contribution (NDC). The climate scenarios represent high precipitation (wet/warm) and high temperature (dry/hot) futures, the consequence of which are transmitted to the economy via channels that impact Uganda’s human, natural, and physical assets.