Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

Overview & Synopsis

Guyana is at a low risk of overall and external debt distress with application of judgement, improved from the 2023 Article IV debt sustainability analysis when it was assessed at a moderate risk of overall and external debt distress. The use of judgement is based on a customized scenario that accounts for the ongoing structural transformation of the economy since the start of oil production. The present value of the external debt-to-GDP ratio rises through 2028 reflecting continued external borrowing but falls to current levels by 2034 as external borrowing is replaced by using receipts from the growing stock of assets in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Public debt starts to decline after 2026 and stabilizes at about 25 percent through 2034. There are considerable upside risks from higher future oil production which will help build additional foreign exchange buffers.