Restoring Fiscal Space and Sustainability: Evidence from a Cross-country Analysis

Overview & Synopsis

This paper provides an overview of issues related to fiscal consolidation drawing on the literature; it distills some lessons from fiscal consolidation episodes using a new database covering 196 countries from 2000 to 2023. The paper discusses the motives, timing, design, and political economy of fiscal consolidation, as well as its macroeconomic and social impacts. We find that fiscal consolidation is often necessary and successful in restoring fiscal sustainability and space, however, it can also entail significant costs and trade-offs in terms of growth, poverty, and inequality. Composition also matters, as expenditure-based consolidations tend to be more successful than revenue-based consolidations and less likely to cause a deterioration in poverty rates or inequality. However, revenue gains usually play an important role starting in the second year of consolidation. Overall, the paper suggests that successful fiscal consolidation requires careful consideration of the economic context, the composition of adjustment, complementary economic policies, and communication and credibility of the strategy. The best way to implement fiscal adjustment is to establish a consolidation strategy in normal/non-crisis times} to ensure that governments do not have to rely on abrupt, pro-cyclical adjustments later on that may exhaust all buffers in the aftermath of a shock.