Regionalizing Green Transition Minerals for Structural Transformation in Africa

Overview & Synopsis

The global shift to a low-carbon economy has intensified the demand for green transition minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. These minerals are essential for manufacturing green technologies such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. The surge in demand presents new opportunities for structural transformation, particularly in developing and emerging economies such as those in Africa. This study critically examines Africa’s role and potential in leveraging its green transition of minerals for structural transformation. The findings show that although the continent collectively holds substantial green transition mineral reserves, it remains largely marginalized in global green mineral and technology value chains. Most African countries individually contribute minimally to global reserves, production, and trade, limiting their strategic leverage - a structural and geological constraint. This is further compounded by the underdeveloped technological and industrial capabilities, political and financial risks, energy shortages, and inadequate infrastructure that plague many African economies. Although several African states have introduced policy reforms to promote local value addition, prevailing dynamics still mirror historical patterns of resource extraction, with China emerging as the continent’s mineral processing and refining hub. In response, the study proposes a developmental regionalism framework as a strategic option for Africa to leverage its green transition minerals for sustainable structural transformation in the new industrial age.