Guinea - Country Climate and Development Report

Overview & Synopsis

Climate change can reduce Guinea’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 11.6 percent by 2050, disproportionately affecting the poor. Guinea is nearly a zero-carbon economy due to its reliance on hydropower energy. Its next challenge is decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions while adapting to the impact of climate change. Adaptation measures can reduce the negative impacts of climate change by approximately half, lowering the estimated impact to 5.4 percent of the baseline GDP in 2050 instead of 11.6 percent. The report offers key recommendations for addressing climate change impacts affecting hydropower generation, agriculture, and infrastructure: 1. Variability in hydropower output is expected to significantly increase by the 2040s, from annual decreases of up to 22 percent and increases of up to 19 percent. 2. Crop yields are expected to be significantly affected, threatening food security. 3. Infrastructure will be degraded due to more volatile precipitation, coupled with growing exposure to flooding and sea level rise. Preparing for climate change challenges requires enhancing the adaptive capacity of people and firms through better access to information, services, and solutions. Addressing climate change necessitates significant investments, but the benefits greatly outweigh the costs. To make these priority investments a reality, Guinea can pursue several financing avenues in parallel: First, enhancing public financing potential is crucial. Second, fostering private sector engagement is critical and can be achieved. Finally, leveraging concessional and blended finance will be critical to multiply investments.