Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor

Overview & Synopsis

Thailand’s economic momentum strengthened at the start of 2026, with growth exceeding expectations, supported by stronger merchandise exports, private investment, and fiscal stimulus in late 2025. Tight credit conditions and household deleveraging continued to constrain the recovery, prompting the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to cut the policy rate to 1.0 percent in February. Goods exports continued to outperform, driven by strong global demand for electronics, even as domestic manufacturing remained subdued. The conflict in the Middle East poses significant downside risks to Thailand’s outlook through higher energy and logistics costs and disruptions to trade and travel routes. Reflecting rising external risks, financial markets turned more volatile in early March, with the baht depreciating and portfolio flows reversing amid heightened global risk aversion.