Zambia - Country Climate and Development Report : Background Paper - Ecosystem Services

Overview & Synopsis

This note presents analytical work undertaken to support the formulation of Zambia’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), contributing to a deep-dive assessment on resilient rural livelihoods. It compares the projected impacts of an aspirational “Green Growth” scenario with a “Business-as-Usual” (BAU) scenario, focusing on land-use change, climate resilience, and ecosystem service outcomes. The analysis is based on spatial mapping and projection of land cover from the present to 2050, combined with the quantification and valuation of ecosystem services under each scenario. It builds on a preparatory literature review assessing Zambia-specific data on land cover trends, ecosystem services, and adaptation and mitigation options in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. Under the BAU scenario, ongoing land degradation and uncontrolled transformation are projected to weaken climate resilience and reduce ecosystem service provision. In contrast, the Green Growth scenario emphasizes climate-smart agriculture, woodland restoration, rangeland management, renewable energy electrification, reduced deforestation, urban migration, farm consolidation, and a transition to clean cooking fuels. The note presents baseline conditions, regional benchmarking, scenario-based ecosystem valuations, and a comparative cost–benefit analysis highlighting the long-term advantages of a Green Growth pathway.