Mongolia Economic Update : Maintaining Stability and Resilience - Special Focus : Harnessing Agglomeration for Productivity in Ulaanbaatar

Overview & Synopsis

Despite trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, Mongolia’s growth remained strong at 6.9 percent in 2025, driven by an agricultural rebound and solid mining performance, particularly copper production at Oyu Tolgoi, which offset weaker coal activity. Growth is expected to remain solid in 2026 despite headwinds from higher energy prices and global uncertainty. Private consumption is anticipated to stay resilient but moderate amid high inflation and tighter policies, while higher public investment, especially through State-Owned Enterprise (SOEs) and city-led projects, is expected to support activity. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Heightened global trade uncertainty and a prolonged Middle East conflict can further weaken external demand, reducing mineral exports, raising costs, and weighing on growth.