Serbia Policy Notes 2026

Overview & Synopsis

Serbia has maintained its macroeconomic position. The authorities successfully implemented a prudent macroeconomic policy mix. The fiscal deficit declined from 7.7 to 2.0% of GDP between 2020 and 2024 and further down to 2.4% in 2025. During the same period, public debt declined from 55.2 to 45% of GDP in 2025. An increase in imports and transfers of income by foreign companies led to a higher current account deficit in 2025 of 4.9% of GDP, compared to 2.4% of GDP in 2023. This in turn led to a small decline in foreign exchange reserves (from an all-time high in 2024), to reach EUR 29 bn in 2025. The inflation rate has peaked in July 2025 and is coming down to the limits set by the NBS target over the recent months. Real GDP growth averaged 3.9% in 2023-2024 but it is now experiencing rapid deceleration and is estimated at around 2% in 2025.