Burundi Economic Update : From Bedrock to Breakthrough - Mining as a Catalyst for Burundi’s Transformation

Overview & Synopsis

Burundi’s 2025 recovery was real but masked by severe macroeconomic imbalances. Early signs of stabilization are encouraging, but much of the improvement reflects favorable external conditions. Disentangling policy gains from external tailwinds is essential to avoid overstating durability. Looking ahead, external shocks threaten to reverse recent gains. Sustaining this momentum is now the central challenge, particularly as the escalation of the Middle East conflict in February 2026 has pushed oil prices above US$90 per barrel and raised fertilizer costs by about 30 percent, renewing pressure on inflation, the import bill, and agricultural input affordability. Consolidating these early gains will require deeper and faster implementation of the stabilization agenda, with appropriate sequencing, rather than a change in policy direction. This Economic Update presents two reform pathways. A High Growth Reform (HGR) scenario assumes sustained improvements in governance and productivity, with growth averaging 6.0 percent, mining reaching 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2060, and per capita income nearly quadrupling to US$1,132 (lower-middle-income threshold). A more aspirational Vision 2040-60 scenario aligns with the government’s long-term agenda but requires unprecedented investment and productivity gains, projecting per capita income of US$12,756 by 2060. Under business-as-usual, per capita income declines and poverty deepens. The gap between these alternative trajectories is defined entirely by policy choices, starting with effective MSP implementation.