Viet Nam Macro Monitoring

Overview & Synopsis

Viet Nam's tech and electronic exports continued to benefit from the global Al investment boom. However, imports grew even faster, driven by the input needs of export-oriented FDI manufacturers and higher import prices, resulting in a trade deficit of US$19 billion in the first eight months of 2026, the highest in 10 years. Inflation re-accelerated to 4. 9 percent in August as rising oil prices pushed up transport costs, increasing pressure on household purchasing power. While banking system liquidity improved, a steady upward drift of about 150bp in interest rates over the past year has raised financing costs for businesses. The exchange rate remained stable, supported by strong FDI inflows, high interest rates, and a weaker US dollar during August. Fifty percent of the state budget was disbursed in the year to August with implementation challenged by materials shortages, land-clearance issues, and weather-related disruptions.