Economics & Development

The focus of this Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is to review key policy and reform options for Equatorial Guinea to build the foundations for renewed, diversified, and more inclusive growth. The CEM thus aims to contribute to the government’s economic development and diversification agendas. The first chapter of the report examines the drivers of past growth, and the country’s asset portfolio, and discusses possible long-term growth trajectories. The second chapter examines fiscal policy as the main instrument for efficient transformation of natural capital into physical and human capital, and outlines the fiscal challenges associated with the reliance on the volatile oil and gas markets. It identifies the key gaps in public financial management, including the challenges posed by climate change and provides reform options for implementing an effective fiscal policy. The third chapter explores the present state of education, health, and social protection and discusses priority options to boost human capital. The fourth chapter then turns to the private sector and the main cross-cutting issues that need to be addressed to encourage higher investment, innovation, and productivity. The final chapter drills down into some key sectors which are likely to play a prominent role in any new growth strategy. These include digitalization in both the public and private sectors, and integration into the world economy through trade and ecotourism.

In an era of increasingly frequent and severe interconnected shocks, particularly climate-related, it is paramount to identify the most vulnerable populations in a timely manner. Dynamic social registries play a vital role in the delivery of adaptive social protection programs in environments where household welfare can change dramatically and abruptly due to shocks. This technical paper explores the role of dynamic social registries in shock-prone contexts, including the Sahel. It outlines their operationalization through direct and indirect data collection, a combination of various intake modalities, and modular questionnaires. Additionally, the paper discusses relevant trade-offs involved in the design of dynamic social registries, such as balancing the need for high-quality data, the costs of expanding coverage, and the associated privacy risks. Key recommendations for operationalizing dynamic social registries, include: (i) establishing a permanent client interface between households and the social registry for on-demand data collection; (ii) adopting a modular structure for socioeconomic questionnaires; (iii) ensuring interoperability with other data sources and delivery systems; and (iv) promoting systematic peer-to-peer learning on social registries.

Ghana’s development path, although registering past successes, faces a series of current and future challenges. Ghana succeeded in halving its poverty rate between 1991 and 2016, from 87 percent (US$3.65 per day in 2017 purchasing power parity [PPP]) to about 50 percent of the population, outpacing progress across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), along with improvements in health and education indicators. However, recent global crises have pushed poverty upward, as the country faces multiple challenges. Ghana needs to provide more and better jobs and foster inclusive productivity growth, especially through investments in human capital. At the same time, the country’s growth path is increasingly vulnerable to climate change and climate-related shocks. Tackling these challenges will require fiscal policy to promote macroeconomic stability, create the right incentives, and generate the necessary public investments.

The Grievance Redress Service (GRS) is an avenue for people and communities to submit complaints directly to the World Bank if they believe that a Bank-supported project has or is likely to have adverse effects on them, their community, or their environment. The GRS handles a variety of environmental and social issues, including with most recurrence: (i) land acquisition, resettlement and compensation issues; (ii) health and safety impacts on communities and project workers; (iii) stakeholder engagement; and (iv) environmental impacts on natural resources and communities. As a problem-solving mechanism, the GRS works with World Bank task teams, Borrowers and complainants to resolve issues quickly and effectively through a collaborative process that aims to deliver long-lasting and sustainable solutions to stakeholder concerns. The GRS plays a key role in identifying trends and systemic issues from past cases to foster institutional learning and the application of lessons learned in new and existing operations. This annual report includes an overview of the complaints received from July 2023 to June 2024, key recurrent themes and emerging trends, training and outreach activities, as well as case studies that illustrate how the GRS works in practice.

El enfoque de este Memorando Económico de País (CEM) es revisar opciones clave de política y reforma a fin de que Guinea Ecuatorial siente las bases para un crecimiento renovado, diversificado y más inclusivo. De este modo, el CEM busca contribuir a las agendas de desarrollo y diversificación económica del gobierno. El primero capítulo del CEM examina los impulsores del crecimiento pasado y la cartera de activos del país, y analiza posibles trayectorias de crecimiento a largo plazo. El segundo capítulo examina la política fiscal como el principal instrumento para la transformación eficiente del capital natural en capital físico y humano, y describe los desafíos fiscales asociados con la dependencia de los volátiles mercados de petróleo y gas. Identifica las brechas clave en la gestión de las finanzas públicas, incluidos los desafíos que plantea el cambio climático, y proporciona opciones de reforma para implementar una política fiscal eficaz. El tercer capítulo explora el estado actual de la educación, la salud y la protección social, y analiza opciones prioritarias para impulsar el capital humano. El cuarto capítulo posteriormente se vuelca en el sector privado y las principales cuestiones transversales que deben abordarse para fomentar una mayor inversión, innovación y productividad. El capítulo final profundiza en algunos sectores clave que probablemente desempeñarán un papel destacado en cualquier estrategia nueva de crecimiento. Estos incluyen la digitalización tanto en el sector público como el privado, y la integración a la economía mundial a través del comercio y el ecoturismo.

São Tomé e Príncipe (STP), uma pequena nação insular de renda média-baixa, está passando por uma onda significativa de emigração, principalmente impulsionada por oportunidades de emprego limitadas e perspectivas econômicas, especialmente entre as gerações mais jovens. Este artigo explora os fatores, dinâmicas e impactos da migração na economia e no tecido social do país, com base em uma combinação de fontes de dados primários e secundários. Estas incluem registros locais de emigração, o registro social nacional, a última pesquisa de orçamento familiar, estimativas globais de estoques de migrantes e fluxos de remessas, e discussões em grupos focais com famílias de migrantes. Os resultados revelam que pelo menos 18% da população de STP agora reside no exterior, com números crescendo rapidamente. A migração é cada vez mais dominada por jovens que se mudam para Portugal, atraídos por laços linguísticos e culturais compartilhados e facilitados por um recente acordo de mobilidade da Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa. No entanto, a migração atualmente traz benefícios econômicos limitados para STP, pois as remessas são baixas, irregulares e limitadas por altos custos de transferência, infraestrutura financeira inadequada e emprego precário dos migrantes no exterior. Socialmente, a migração também pode perturbar estruturas familiares, afetando particularmente as crianças que enfrentam desafios de cuidado e bem-estar emocional. As recomendações políticas incluem melhorar a empregabilidade dos migrantes, explorar parcerias bilaterais de migração, fortalecer sistemas de gestão de migração, melhorar os serviços de remessas e apoiar as famílias que permanecem no país através de assistência social.

Sao Tome and Príncipe (STP), a lower-middle-income small island nation, is undergoing a significant wave of emigration, primarily driven by limited job opportunities and economic prospects, particularly among younger generations. This paper explores migration's drivers, dynamics, and impacts on the country’s economy and social fabric, drawing on a combination of primary and secondary data sources. These include local emigration records, the national social registry, the latest household budget survey, global estimates of migrant stocks and remittance flows, and focus group discussions with migrant families. The findings reveal that at least 18 percent of STP’s population now resides abroad, with numbers growing rapidly. Migration is increasingly dominated by young individuals moving to Portugal, attracted by shared linguistic and cultural ties and facilitated by a recent Community of Portuguese Language Countries mobility agreement. However, migration currently delivers limited economic benefits to STP, as remittances are low, irregular, and constrained by high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and migrants’ precarious employment abroad. Socially, migration may also disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional wellbeing. Policy recommendations include enhancing migrants’ employability, exploring bilateral migration partnerships, strengthening migration management systems, improving remittance services, and supporting families who remain in the country through social assistance.

El enfoque de este Memorando Económico de País (CEM) es revisar opciones clave de política y reforma a fin de que Guinea Ecuatorial siente las bases para un crecimiento renovado, diversificado y más inclusivo. De este modo, el CEM busca contribuir a las agendas de desarrollo y diversificación económica del gobierno. El primero capítulo del CEM examina los impulsores del crecimiento pasado y la cartera de activos del país, y analiza posibles trayectorias de crecimiento a largo plazo. El segundo capítulo examina la política fiscal como el principal instrumento para la transformación eficiente del capital natural en capital físico y humano, y describe los desafíos fiscales asociados con la dependencia de los volátiles mercados de petróleo y gas. Identifica las brechas clave en la gestión de las finanzas públicas, incluidos los desafíos que plantea el cambio climático, y proporciona opciones de reforma para implementar una política fiscal eficaz. El tercer capítulo explora el estado actual de la educación, la salud y la protección social, y analiza opciones prioritarias para impulsar el capital humano. El cuarto capítulo posteriormente se vuelca en el sector privado y las principales cuestiones transversales que deben abordarse para fomentar una mayor inversión, innovación y productividad. El capítulo final profundiza en algunos sectores clave que probablemente desempeñarán un papel destacado en cualquier estrategia nueva de crecimiento. Estos incluyen la digitalización tanto en el sector público como el privado, y la integración a la economía mundial a través del comercio y el ecoturismo.

Cambodia has achieved significant progress in improving health outcomes, including reductions in infant and maternal mortality and communicable diseases. However, the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which accounted for nearly two-thirds of mortality in 2019, presents new challenges. With 76 percent of patients initially seeking care in the private sector and out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) accounting for 61 percent of total health spending, financial barriers remain substantial. To address these issues, Cambodia’s Universal Health Coverage Roadmap aims to reduce OOPE by expanding the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and Health Equity Fund (HEF), alongside strengthening governance mechanisms such as licensing, accreditation, and strategic purchasing. This report examines how private pharmacies, often the first point of contact in the health system, can be integrated into social health protection (SHP) schemes to improve access to affordable NCD medicines. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including literature review, service assessments, surveys, focus group discussions, and key stakeholder interviews, with a focus on hypertension and diabetes care.