Economics & Development

Resumen de dos páginas con los resultados de PISA 2025 para Perú. Reúne los puntajes en lectura, matemática y ciencias, la proporción de estudiantes bajo el nivel mínimo de competencia, la evolución del desempeño en el tiempo y las diferencias por nivel socioeconómico y género. Cierra con seis prioridades para la educación secundaria, basadas en el reporte del Banco Mundial Donde los caminos se bifurcan. Fuente: OCDE (2026), PISA 2025 Results (Volume I).

Elicited probabilities have been shown to be effectively in explaining and predicting behavior. Their elicitation is typically facilitated by visual aids, such as beads or beans. This study, introduces a novel aid, consisting of a cardboard-based slider, to facilitate probability elicitation among populations with low levels of education. Unlike discrete aids, such as beads, the slider allows respondents to report probabilities on a continuous scale, which is particularly advantageous for statistical inference and econometric modeling. To compare the effectiveness of these aids, the study conducted four survey experiments: two in Nigeria, one in Honduras, and one in Spain. These experiments assessed the validity of elicited expectations using both visual aids. The study found no significant differences in participants’ understanding of basic probability concepts or in the time required to complete the task. However, it found that the slider yielded more precise measures (lower variance) than the beads. These results suggest that comprehension remains consistent across both aids, but that the slider improved the precision of subjective probability elicitation in the field.

This Technical Handbook was developed under Component 3 of the TAFF–North Macedonia “Prepare for Futures” Project to support national counterparts in designing a Resilient Recovery Framework (RRF) aligned with European and international best practices. The project comprises three interconnected components: Component 1 strengthens the disaster risk management framework through updated multi-hazard assessment methodologies, technical handbooks, and training programs; Component 2 develops and pilots a methodology for screening and prioritizing critical infrastructure assets in Gazi Baba and Bitola; and Component 3 builds on these outputs, together with socio-economic vulnerability analytics, to establish a comprehensive RRF that promotes resilient, sustainable recovery and reconstruction following disasters. Drawing on the findings, tools, and lessons generated through the project, this Handbook presents a clear roadmap for developing the Resilient Recovery Framework. It synthesizes evidence from multiple project outputs, including hazard and risk assessment methodologies, a background report for post-disaster recovery planning, data-readiness reviews for critical infrastructure investments, and municipal socio-economic vulnerability assessments. The Handbook examines the current disaster risk management system in North Macedonia, identifies key institutional and operational gaps, and introduces updated approaches for assessing hazards, risks, and socio-economic vulnerability, including the newly developed Disaster Vulnerability Index (DVI). Using this evidence base, the document outlines how national institutions can transition from predominantly reactive recovery practices toward a more structured, predictable, and risk-informed recovery system that enhances resilience, supports sustainable development, and improves preparedness for future disasters.