Economics & Development

Leveraging rotating-panel data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (2015-2020) and a dynamic discrete choice model, we estimate one-time sectoral entry costs that capture mobility frictions beyond simple sectoral wage differentials. Using a two-stage identification strategy, consisting of a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regression to recover bilateral labor-flow frictions and an instrumental-variables approach to estimate wage responsiveness, we quantify these frictions in monetary terms. The estimated transition costs are heterogeneous by origin-destination sector, worker gender, and age, ranging from 0.12 to over 4.5 years of average national wages. Coal and electricity workers command wage premiums and possess higher skill levels relative to comparable workers in other sectors, yet older and more educated workers face steeper sector-specific barriers. These findings illustrate how well-designed transition projects, such as those using demographic and sectoral targeting, can support workers and reduce the risk of human capital dislocation during coal phase-out. General equilibrium modelling to evaluate economy-wide implications--including physical infrastructure lifetimes, carbon costs, and multi-country analyses - is underway.

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Guinea is anchored in the government’s long-term “Simandou 2040” vision and focuses on leveraging the country’s mineral wealth to drive diversified, private sector–led growth and large-scale job creation. Despite strong economic growth driven by mining, employment generation and poverty reduction have remained limited, with most jobs informal and concentrated outside high-growth sectors. With the upcoming Simandou iron ore exports and significant natural resource potential, Guinea has a unique opportunity to transform its economy by expanding employment-intensive sectors such as agribusiness, tourism, and value-added manufacturing. The CPF reflects the World Bank Group’s jobs-focused approach by addressing key constraints including low human capital, limited private investment, weak infrastructure, governance challenges, and climate vulnerabilities. It prioritizes institutional strengthening, improved revenue management, and enhanced access to markets, finance, and services, especially for SMEs, while aligning with SCD recommendations and CPF selectivity filters. Drawing on lessons from the Completion and Learning Review, the CPF emphasizes flexibility, targeted interventions, and partnerships, ensuring that WBG support is focused on areas where it can deliver the greatest development impact and help Guinea achieve sustainable, job-rich growth.