Economics & Development

GDP growth is estimated to slow to 1.7 percent in 2025, with a modest recovery to 2.7 percent in 2026, influenced by the ongoing Middle East conflict. New energy projects could boost medium-term growth. With lower Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues, maintaining fiscal discipline is crucial to reduce debt. Due to modest growth and high unemployment, poverty is estimated at 28.3 percent in 2025 (US$3/day international poverty line, 2021 PPP).

Economic growth remained strong in 2025, reaching 11.1 percent, supported by robust private consumption and investment. Rapid growth continued to generate price pressures, with average inflation rising to 8.2 percent. The fiscal balance remained in surplus, underpinned by buoyant revenues. Over the medium term, growth is expected to moderate, inflation to accelerate and the fiscal position to shift into deficit.

Growth moderated to 2.1 percent in 2025, reflecting weak construction and subdued investment, partially offset by solid performance in agriculture and mining. Rising remittances, resilient labor market conditions, and strong FDI supported household incomes and contributed to improved welfare. Economic growth is forecast to recover to 3.6 percent in 2026, driven by investment recovery and resilient private consumption, resulting in further poverty reduction.

Growth remained strong at 7.5 percent in 2025, supported by private consumption. Poverty continued to decline, supported by rising real wages and household incomes, though unemployment remains structurally high. Growth is expected to ease towards 5 percent in 2026 and over the medium term. Domestic political uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks could further weaken the reform momentum.

Fiscal and monetary policies were loosened ahead of the 2025 elections, slowing the improvements in macroeconomic stability achieved in recent years. Growth is projected to strengthen in 2026–2027 and surge in 2028 as oil production begins. Ensuring that future oil wealth supports inclusive and sustainable development will require strengthening institutions, enforcing fiscal rules, and improving the targeting of social spending.

Official data indicate that Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 6.3 percent in 2025, driven by investment, private consumption, services, construction, and agriculture. The growth outlook remains positive in 2026, reflecting the country’s better prospects for energy export performance due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, while inflation is projected to increase gradually reflecting pressures from international energy prices as well as domestic factors.

Driven by rapid expansion of oil and gas production, Guyana is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. The government is pursuing ambitious public investment to transform the non-oil economy and address development needs. However, progress in poverty reduction is difficult to assess due to data gaps. Prudent management of petroleum revenues and continued institutional strengthening remain essential for broad-based growth.

Economic growth decelerated to 1.4 percent in 2025, reflecting a steeper contraction in the hydrocarbon sector and sluggish expansion in the non-hydrocarbon sector. Inflation moderated in 2025 as domestic demand eased. External and fiscal surpluses narrowed as hydrocarbon-related inflows declined. Growth is expected to pickup modestly in the medium-term, due to less pronounced decline in hydrocarbon output and a gradual recovery in non-hydrocarbon activity.

Growth recovered to 4.4 percent in 2025, driven mainly by services, and is projected around 4 percent over 2026–2028. Fiscal consolidation strengthened in 2025, via improved revenue collection and targeted spending cuts, meeting fiscal targets. Poverty is estimated to have decreased between 2024–2025. Sustained tax reforms and efficient, equitable public spending are essential for growth and faster poverty reduction.

GDP contracted for a seventh consecutive year in FY2025 amid persistent insecurity, which has displaced 1.4 million people. Hurricane Melissa compounded food insecurity and poverty, damaging crops. Following the dissolution of the Transitional Presidential Council, prospects hinge on the newly authorized Gang Suppression Force (GSF), progress toward elections planned for late 2026, and resolution of trade and migration policy uncertainties.

Growth accelerated to 3.1 percent in 2025, driven by infrastructure investment and tourism, and is expected to remain robust despite moderation as major projects conclude, reflecting increased productive capacity. The fiscal deficit is projected to decline as capital outlays decrease and revenue measures are implemented, supporting debt sustainability. External shocks could weaken growth and employment, pushing vulnerable households into poverty.

Growth accelerated from 1.5 percent in 2024 to 2.6 percent in 2025, driven by private consumption and government spending amid expansive fiscal and income policies. Disinflation paused and the fiscal position deteriorated further following the suspension of the fiscal rule. Growth is projected at 2.2 percent in 2026, with poverty edging down to 34.8 percent. Risks include fiscal slippage, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty.

After reducing fuel subsidies in late 2025, the new government faces the task of addressing inherited high fiscal deficits, high inflation, and falling living standards. With real GDP estimated to have contracted by 2.1 percent in 2025, Bolivia needs a credible plan to tackle widening imbalances and rebuild fiscal and external buffers to stabilize the economy and reignite growth and poverty reduction.

Economic growth reached 6.5 percent in 2025 and is projected to moderate to 4.6 percent in 2026, reflecting the stabilization of oil output and softer domestic demand. Inflation is expected to slightly ease but remain above the target, and the poverty rate is projected to decline to 9.2 percent in 2026. Downside risks to the outlook include volatile global oil prices, potential disruptions to exports, and more persistent inflation.