On prediction in political science

Abstract This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time‐scale.

# Political Science Research and Education # Social Sciences # Social Science and Policy Research # Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research

Keith M. Dowding, Charles Miller (2019). "On prediction in political science". European Journal of Political Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12319