Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China
Yi Jin
(Institute of Industrial Economics, School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China)
Xiaoyang Zhong
(Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China; Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden 2333 CC, the Netherlands; Corresponding author)
Arnold Tukker
(Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden 2333 CC, the Netherlands; Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO, den Haag, the Netherlands)
Xu Tang
(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China)
Elina Brutschin
(Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)
Zhida Ma
(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China)
Yingchao Chen
(School of Economics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 255000, China)
Wenchao Li
(School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China)
Lixin Tian
(School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China)
Bas van Ruijven
(Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)
Paul Behrens
(Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden 2333 CC, the Netherlands; Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK)
Journal: iScience
•
• Elsevier
• ISSN: 2589-0042
Abstract
Summary: China’s fossil fuel infrastructure could lock in substantial emissions across both extraction and downstream use, making a well-defined phaseout strategy urgent for achieving carbon neutrality. We analyze the differences between the current retirement strategy and the proposed emission-oriented retirement sequencing strategy by quantifying the emission mitigation effect, employment benefit, and cost-saving advantage of strategies. We show that China’s fossil fuel emissions totaled 9,850 MtCO 2 e in 2023 and are projected to reach 98.9–148.5 GtCO 2 e cumulatively during 2024–2050 under existing plans across energy-demand scenarios. Strategically sequencing retirements could avoid a cumulative 3.8–4.8 GtCO 2 e by 2050, more than annual European emissions, while simultaneously increasing employment by 4–6 million full-time equivalent-years and reducing net total system costs by 245–507 billion CNY (around 34–71 billion USD). These results highlight the climate, economic, and social benefits of sequencing-based phaseout strategies.
Yi Jin, Xiaoyang Zhong, Arnold Tukker, et al. (2026). "Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China". iScience. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.117563